Crazy to Calm
From Ida to Elsa and into the unknown, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season had a busy start then came to a quiet end. Through it all, AccuWeather’s meteorologists stayed one step ahead, predicting the number of named storms as well as the downturn in activity late in the season. Five named storms formed by July 1st in the active start, surpassing a record set only last year. By mid-September, the most active time on average, eight storms already made landfall in the U.S. — but then it all slowed down. Stronger than normal wind shear in the Caribbean and the weather phenomenon La Niña both played key roles in the late-season slowdown. Our meteorologists saw a pattern developing in October which would create an unfavorable environment for tropical development with six weeks to go in hurricane season, and made their prediction. This abrupt end in the tropical activity also contributed to a unique record: it was the first year since the start of the satellite era in 1966 in which there were no major hurricanes anywhere in the world between September 25th and November 19th.
Back in March, AccuWeather predicted the 2021 season nearly to a T, calling for 16 to 20 named systems, between 7 and 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes. Now at the end of the season, this prediction turned out to be nearly spot-on with 21 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.
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Some of the most notable aspects of the 2021 season were not major hurricanes but rather tropical storms that hit the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. Henri was the first tropical system to make landfall in Rhode Island since 1991 and soaked communities across the Northeast, bringing up to a foot of rain to parts of New York. Hurricane Ida ravaged Louisiana as a category 4 storm but caused a greater loss of life as a tropical storm once it reached the mid-Atlantic on September 1st. More than 50 deaths were reported as the storm unleashed a deluge of rain that resulted in “the most significant flash-flooding disaster in New York City history,” according to AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter. Ida also spawned tornadoes across New Jersey and Pennsylvania, leading to significant property damage.
Overall, the impact of climate change is resulting in more hurricanes. With a total of 21 named storms, the 2021 season turned out to be about 50% above average. In terms of the number of major hurricanes; storms that reach Category 3 force or higher; 2021 proved slightly above average. Four storms – Grace, Ida, Larry, and Sam – all reached major hurricane status and exceeded the 30-year average of 3.2 major hurricanes per year.
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