Breaking down the US winter forecast for the 2023-2024 season: what to expect
Summary
The 2023-2024 US winter forecast is heavily influenced by the strengthening El Niño, leading to region-specific weather patterns with increased heating demand across the country.
Key Highlights
The strengthening El Niño significantly influences the winter forecast, leading to region-specific weather patterns.
The Northeast can expect a winter with above-average snowfall, while the central U.S. may experience both mild and cold spells during the season.
The heating demand in the U.S. is expected to increase compared to the previous year, especially in the South.
Winter is approaching, and businesses should start gearing up for the season's unique challenges. Regardless of their size or industry, companies should look closer at the 2023-2024 winter weather forecast. Understanding the implications of winter weather is crucial for various aspects of business operations, from managing energy costs to ensuring smooth supply chains. AccuWeather For Business recommends businesses should start preparing now for winter weather hazards.
Heating demand across the US
According to AccuWeather Founder & Executive Chairman Dr. Joel N. Myers, the heating demand in the U.S. is expected to increase compared to the previous year, especially in the South. This means some regions will have higher heating energy consumption while others will remain below historical averages.
The power of El Niño
El Niño is a climate phenomenon that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean exceed historical averages for an extended period. This leads to a reconfiguration of the jet stream and results in altered weather patterns across the globe, including North America. During winter, the influence of El Niño becomes particularly pronounced, and this year, it's expected to be a strong player in shaping the winter across the United States.
Northeast: Get ready for snow
Expect a snowier winter in the Northeast this year, particularly in cities such as Boston, New York City and Philadelphia. While Buffalo may not have a repeat of last year's massive snowfall, AccuWeather forecasts more snow, bringing conditions closer to historical averages. This bodes well for winter sports enthusiasts.
Southeast: A roller-coaster ride of weather
The Southeast is in for a roller coaster of weather, with both El Niño and warm Gulf of Mexico waters contributing to severe weather and tornado risks in the Gulf Coast states. January and February will be colder than last year, increasing heating demand. Some areas, such as the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast, may even experience wintry precipitation.
Central US: From mild to bitterly cold
In the central U.S., expect a milder start to winter with occasional cold spells. However, a polar vortex shift could bring frigid air as winter progresses, leading to some of the season's coldest conditions. This may result in higher energy bills and potential lake-effect snow near the Great Lakes. This winter is not expected to be a repeat of last year, with the seasonal snowfall totals forecast to be less than half of the totals from last year.
Western US: El Niño's influence on California
El Niño will once again bring storms to California, Nevada and the Four Corners region, filling reservoirs and providing great ski conditions in states like Utah, Arizona, Colorado and New Mexico. However, the Pacific Northwest may miss out on these storms, potentially worsening drought conditions in Washington and Oregon.
Watch the on-demand version of AccuWeather's winter weather outlook webinar, or download a copy of the presentation.
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Benefits of AccuWeather’s Snow Warning Service:
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- Post-storm weather conditions, including verified precipitation amounts
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